Estimation of Defects Based on Defect Decay Model: ED^\{3\}M

An accurate prediction of the number of defects in a software product during system testing contributes not only to the management of the system testing process but also to the estimation of the product's required maintenance. Here, a new approach called ED<sup>3</sup>M is presented that computes an estimate of the total number of defects in an ongoing testing process. ED<sup>3</sup>M is based on estimation theory. Unlike many existing approaches the technique presented here does not depend on historical data from previous projects or any assumptions about the requirements and/or testers' productivity. It is a completely automated approach that relies only on the data collected during an ongoing testing process. This is a key advantage of the ED<sup>3</sup>M approach, as it makes it widely applicable in different testing environments. Here, the ED<sup>3</sup>M approach has been evaluated using five data sets from large industrial projects and two data sets from the literature. In addition, a performance analysis has been conducted using simulated data sets to explore its behavior using different models for the input data. The results are very promising; they indicate the ED<sup>3</sup>M approach provides accurate estimates with as fast or better convergence time in comparison to well-known alternative techniques, while only using defect data as the input.